IEA: Power Demand Up 3.6%/yr to 2030 as Renewables Rise
Global electricity demand is projected to grow by an average of 3.6% per year through 2030, propelled largely by industrial electrification, the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, and the expanding power needs of data centres and artificial intelligence, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.
In its Electricity 2026 report, the IEA expects renewables, natural gas and nuclear to cover all additional demand over the period. Electricity generation from coal is forecast to edge down, leaving CO₂ emissions from power generation broadly flat to the end of the decade. By 2030, renewables and nuclear are set to provide half of global electricity output, up from 42% today, the agency said.
Power Use Accelerates Faster Than Overall Energy Demand
The IEA estimates that electricity demand will expand at least 2.5 times faster than total energy demand. Key drivers include rising electricity use in industry, stronger EV adoption, higher air-conditioning demand, and continued growth in data centres and AI.
Global electricity consumption rose 3% year-on-year in 2025, after a 4.4% increase in 2024, the report notes.
Grid Investment and Flexibility Become the Next Bottlenecks
IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori said meeting the demand surge will require a significant upgrade of power networks. The IEA expects annual investment in electricity grids to rise by 50% by 2030.
Flexibility measures—such as storage, demand response and other balancing tools—will also be essential as power systems evolve, alongside stronger attention to security and resilience, Sadamori said.
Renewables Overtake Coal on the Back of Record Solar Growth
The IEA said global renewable power generation reached parity with coal in 2025 and is now moving ahead, supported by record solar installations. Renewable electricity output is expected to increase by around 1,000 TWh each year, with solar alone contributing more than 600 TWh annually.
Even so, the agency cautions that coal would still remain the single largest fuel source for electricity generation globally, despite a gradual decline.
EU: Renewables Share Seen at 63% by 2030
In the European Union, electricity demand is increasingly being met by renewables as coal use falls sharply. According to the report, renewables’ share of total EU power generation is expected to surpass all non-renewables combined as early as this year.
The IEA forecasts that renewables will exceed 50% of EU electricity generation in 2026, and rise to 63% by 2030, up from 48% in 2025. Wind and solar are projected to account for 46% of EU power output by 2030, compared with 30% in 2025.
By the end of the decade, the EU is expected to add more than 400 GW of net renewable capacity, around 70% from solar, split roughly evenly between utility-scale and distributed installations.
Nuclear Output Hits Record, Battery Storage Expands
The IEA said nuclear power is regaining strategic importance in many advanced economies. Global nuclear generation set a new record in 2025 and is expected to keep rising steadily through 2030.
The report also highlights rapid growth in utility-scale battery storage, particularly in California, Germany, Texas, South Australia and the United Kingdom, strengthening short-term system flexibility.
Connection Queues and Curtailment Rise as Grids Struggle
Despite strong momentum in renewables and storage, grid congestion is creating delays. The IEA estimates that as of 2025, at least 1,700 GW of advanced-stage renewable projects and more than 600 GW of battery storage projects were waiting in connection queues.
Grid bottlenecks are also driving higher curtailment. In Germany, wind curtailment rates between 2022 and 2024 were above 5%, while solar curtailment climbed to 2% in 2024. In China, 4.1% of wind and 3.2% of solar generation were curtailed in 2024, up from 2.7% and 2% in 2023, with preliminary 2025 data indicating curtailment rose above 5% for both wind and solar.
Coal Declines, Keeping Power-Sector CO₂ Emissions Flat
On the fossil side, the IEA expects natural gas-fired generation to increase, driven by rising demand in the United States and a shift from oil to gas in the Middle East.
Coal-fired generation is projected to fall as renewables expand, returning to 2021 levels by the end of the decade. As a result, global CO₂ emissions from electricity generation are expected to remain broadly flat through 2030.
The IEA forecasts emissions declines in major markets: between 2026 and 2030, China’s power-sector CO₂ emissions are expected to decrease by 0.2% per year on average, the United States by 1.4% annually, and the EU by around 11% per year. India, however, is projected to see emissions rise by an annual average of 2.4% over the same period.
