Greece’s energy transition at risk amid gridlock with batteries, new tech
An overreliance on photovoltaics, combined with slow growth in the deployment of new technologies and storage, threatens Greece’s renewable energy future.
The country achieved rapid growth in renewable energy in the past five years, and penetration has surpassed 50% of the electricity mix.
However, the very success of the energy policies also led to significant issues that the government must address to achieve its 2030 goals.
Curtailments slashing profits as storage lags
This year, curtailments doubled from 2024, alongside a rising number of hours of zero or negative prices in the day-ahead market (DAM). It means that producers are subject to a loss of profits. Some investors have exited the Greek market as a result of worsening conditions.
At the same time, there is a huge licensing queue, as more than 15 GW of projects have acquired connection terms from the network operators. This is more than enough to cover the country’s 2030 goal and even beyond.
Energy storage is expected to provide a solution to curtailments and zero pricing. However, the first standalone battery projects have been pushed back nine months, as the original deadline was deemed too strict. Developers are competing against time to secure European funding through the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF), via the National Recovery and Resilience Plan Greece 2.0.
Energy mix diversification needed
Photovoltaics dominate the energy mix and this year they are expected to surge by 2 GW. There is growth in every segment of the solar market, although small investors complain of a preferential policy towards larger players. This is especially evident in the case of energy communities and farmers‘ photovoltaics, where such issues are abundant.
Wind installations have stalled in recent years and the offshore wind program has not made any progress towards the 2030 goal. The European Commission warned that investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) are in danger of losing RRF funding at the current pace. Pilot projects in hydrogen are advancing, but it remains uncertain when they will become operational and at what scale.
The special renewables account turned red this summer, with an ever-growing deficit. There is also uncertainty surrounding projections about the country’s future electricity demand. Sales of electric cars and heat pumps are lagging behind the European average, while large data centers are seen as a way to increase consumption and support more power production.
All these issues mean that Greece may not achieve all its 2030 goals from the final National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP). The country initially presented a highly ambitious first version, but later reduced it to keep costs low for consumers.
