European Commission – Official scenarios

European Commission

Baseline scenarios provide a reference comparison for a range of alternative scenarios and energy policy options. The reference scenario from IEA and the Commission on wind power are described here. In earlier reports the data was not separated from other renewables such as solar and geothermal.

The European Commission made no estimates for wind energy in 1992.

In 1996 under a ‘Conventional wisdom’ scenario it projected a market for wind and solar to be 4.38 GW in 2000, 6.1 GW in 2005, 8.01 GW in 2010, 10.1 GW in 2015 and 12.34 GW in 2020. The 2020 figure was reached in 2000 by wind alone.

The 1996 ‘advanced scenario’ projected a market of 6.82 GW in 2000, 11.62 GW in 2005, in 2010, 17.68 GW in 2010, 23.67 GW in 2015 and 30.28 in 2020. The 2020 fi gure was reached in early 2004 by wind alone. The 1999 Commission base scenario projections for wind, solar and geothermal was 9.4 GW in 2000, 16 GW in 2005, 23 GW in 2010, 34.4 GW in 2015 and 46.2 GW in 2020. The 2015 figure has already been reached at the end of 2004 by wind alone.

In 2003 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28.6 GW in 2005, 74 GW in 2010, 92.6 GW in 2015, 105.3 GW in 2020, 126.4 GW in 2025 and 149.4 GW in 2030

Between 1996 and 2003, the Commission’s estimate of how much wind power would be built in 2010 was increased ninefold.

In 2004 the Commission Baseline scenario projections for wind and solar were 28 GW in 2005, 73.2 GW in 2010, 91.7 GW in 2015, 104.1 GW in 2020, 125.2 GW in 2025 and 149.2 GW in 2030.

Advanced scenarios on wind energy

The 2003 European Commission scenario presented a number of different scenarios with an increased role for renewables and wind energy. The advanced scenario is ‘Gothenburg type targets’ which provides details for wind energy on its own.

The ‘Gothenburg type targets’ projected installed wind energy capacity of 79.8 GW in 2010, 144.8 GW in 2020 and 213.5 GW in 2030.


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