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EU Eyes Urgent Gas Price Cap as Geopolitical Tensions Destabilize Energy Markets

The European Commission is weighing aggressive interventions in the energy market—including a potential cap on natural gas prices—to shield consumers and industries from a sharp spike in electricity costs. Speaking at a European Parliament plenary debate, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen signaled that the executive branch is preparing a suite of emergency measures to decouple gas prices from broader power bills.

Geopolitical Volatility Hits the Grid

The move comes as energy markets face renewed turbulence driven by the armed conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran. The escalation has severely disrupted shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.

The impact on European benchmarks has been immediate and severe:

  • Late February: TTF gas traded at a relatively stable €31 per MWh.

  • Peak Surge: Following the escalation, prices spiked by 100%, briefly eclipsing €62 per MWh.

  • Current Standing: Prices have leveled off slightly but remain elevated at over €51 per MWh.

The “Merit Order” Dilemma

Under the EU’s current “merit order” system, electricity prices are determined by the most expensive power plant required to meet total demand. Because natural gas plants are frequently the final resources called upon to balance the grid, they effectively set the price for the entire market—even when cheaper renewables are available.

“It is crucial that we reduce the cost impact when gas sets the electricity price,” von der Leyen stated. “We are exploring better use of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), Contracts for Difference (CfDs), and direct gas price caps to break this link.”

Breakdown of the Average EU Electricity Bill

To address the crisis holistically, the Commission is analyzing the four primary drivers of consumer costs:

Component Share of Bill Commission Strategy
Energy Generation 56% Gas price caps, subsidies, and state aid.
Grid Charges 18% Increasing grid productivity to reduce waste.
Taxes & Levies 15% Encouraging member states to lower local burdens.
Carbon Costs (ETS) 11% Modernizing the Emissions Trading System.

Beyond Price Caps: A Long-Term Overhaul

While a gas cap serves as a “firebreak,” the Commission’s strategy extends to structural reforms. Von der Leyen emphasized that increasing the productivity of existing grids is a priority to ensure that renewable energy is not “wasted” during periods of peak production. Furthermore, the Commission aims to modernize the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to ensure carbon pricing remains a tool for transition rather than a prohibitive burden during supply shocks.

By targeting every component of the power bill—from the raw commodity cost to the underlying taxes Brussels hopes to stabilize a continent currently caught in the crosshairs of global conflict.

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Gazprom’s NIS can restart Serbian refinery as US suspends sanctions

Croatian oil pipeline operator JANAF said it received a license from the United States and that it is prepared to resume supply to NIS. The Serbian company, controlled by Russian state-owned Gazprom, came under American sanctions and ceased fuel production a month ago.

Serbian officials announced that the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the US Treasury Department has issued a license to NIS – Naftna industrija Srbije – to restart operations at its refinery. They said the approval lasts until January 23. It means the country’s only refinery can work again after almost three months since oil deliveries ceased.

The Serbian company, controlled by Russian state-owned Gazprom, came under US sanctions in January. After several postponements, the punitive measures came into force in early October. The oil refiner and fuel station chain operator halted production a month ago.

Croatian state-owned oil pipeline operator Jadranski naftovod (JANAF) said it has obtained a US license, valid also until January 23, in cooperation with the Government of Croatia. The company is “fully prepared to immediately ensure uninterrupted transport and supply of crude oil to the Pančevo refinery,” the announcement reads.

Serbian public broadcaster RTS learned from unnamed sources familiar with the matter that President Aleksandar Vučić earlier spoke to OFAC and the US Department of State, as well as with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The negotiations between Gazprom and Hungarian MOL about the sale of the entire Russian majority stake could be completed before the license expires, according to the report.

Notably, it could take several weeks to restart the refinery, located near Belgrade.

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Serbia backs talks on sale of NIS to Hungary’s MOL – energy minister

Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović has confirmed that Russian shareholders are negotiating the sale of their stake in Serbia-based oil company NIS to Hungarian oil and gas company MOL, and that the Government of Serbia supports the talks. NIS is majority-owned by Russian energy giant Gazprom, whose exit from the ownership structure is a requirement for lifting US sanctions against the oil company.

Đedović Handanović added that both NIS and MOL have approached the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). According to her, the negotiations on the exit of Russian capital from NIS’s ownership structure are supported by the Russian, Hungarian and Serbian governments.

“The Government of Hungary has supported those talks, and we, as the Government of Serbia, will also provide support, with the aim of finding a solution to lift the sanctions and to create the conditions for granting an operating license to NIS,” she stated.

NIS has applied for an OFAC license to continue operating, but has not yet received approval.

Serbia supports the sale of the Russian stake in NIS to enable the lifting of US sanctions

Recently, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić also confirmed that information had emerged about negotiations between Gazprom and MOL, adding that Serbia had no objections to the sale of NIS to the Hungarian company.

Serbian officials previously said that the Russian side had agreed to sell the company and that negotiations were underway with several firms. According to unofficial information at the time, one of the suitors was Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) from the United Arab Emirates.

The US sanctions against NIS, which supplies 70–80% of petroleum products to the Serbian market, came into effect on October 9. The sanctions have blocked NIS from importing crude oil, forcing its Pančevo refinery to halt production.

Đedović Handanović: Serbia still has enough fuel, but reserves are depleting

Đedović Handanović said that citizens have not felt the impact of the sanctions and that Serbia still has sufficient fuel, from diesel and gasoline to fuel oil and kerosene, to get through the crisis. However, she noted that these reserves are depleting and that people need to understand that Serbia lacks the logistical capacity to import the volumes of petroleum products it requires.

She stressed that Serbia will continue the dialogue to ensure that NIS can continue operating, regardless of the time required to complete the transaction between MOL and the Russian shareholders.

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Fearful about oil sanctions, Serbia’s Vučić seeks support from EU leaders

Facing an imminent halt of the Gazprom-owned Serbian oil company NIS due to US sanctions, President Aleksandar Vučić met with EU leaders António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels. “I don’t have such a strong fear regarding gas as I do about oil,” he revealed and said they spoke about the possibilities for importing derivatives from Romania, Bulgaria and other countries in the region. Costa and Von der Leyen urged Serbia to further align with the EU’s foreign and security policy.

Serbia hasn’t received a single drop of crude oil for two months, President Aleksandar Vučić noted as he addressed the press in Brussels after meeting European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The country’s only refinery is run by NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije), which Russian state-owned Gazprom controls through its subsidiaries. Entirely stripped of oil supply since United States sanctions against the Serbian company kicked in, the facility recently ground to a halt.

There is apparently no progress in talks about the sale of Gazprom’s share. The authorities expect that Serbia will have to freeze NIS completely in the next few days, for its financial system to avoid secondary sanctions.

NIS and Lukoil together hold over one quarter of fuel stations in Serbia

The company, which is also present in some neighboring countries, supplied 80% of derivatives in the domestic market. Moreover, one in five fuel stations in Serbia is branded NIS or Gazprom. They account for more than a quarter together with Russia-based Lukoil. It is also under US sanctions, though able to operate almost until the end of April.

Vučić: It will only get harder each coming day

Vučić said he and Costa and Von der Leyen spoke about the key energy concerns that Serbia is facing. “It’s not easy for us already today, and it will only get harder each coming day… I don’t have such a strong fear regarding gas as I do about oil. Of course I am fearful, as a responsible man. I am always fearful, but we sought solutions and worked on it and I hope we will have EU’s support in these very important matters,” he stated.

Namely, Serbia is dependent on Russian gas and its transit through Bulgaria. The fuel comes via the Balkan Stream pipeline, an extension of TurkStream. If NIS is nationalized, the Kremlin could slash or even end the supply in case. Serbia is buying gas under short-term arrangements since May. The EU has launched measures to end most of the remaining supply from Russia next year.

According to the president, possibilities were discussed at the meeting of importing oil derivatives from Romania, Bulgaria and other countries in the region.

There was also word about where Serbia would build gas and oil pipelines, Vučić added and hinted at projects for liquid fuel pipelines as well. He mentioned the possibility of transporting diesel that way from Constanța, Romania’s Black Sea port city. Near it is the Petromidia refinery, owned by Rompetrol, a 100% subsidiary of Kazakhstan’s state-owned KazMunayGas (KMG).

Vučić said he spoke with the two top officials about the plan for a gas interconnector with North Macedonia.

Europe has consistently shown solidarity with Serbia, according to both top officials

Costa and Von der Leyen issued short and essentially identical messages after the meeting with the Serbian president. They highlighted the importance of accelerating reforms in the country, particularly with regard to the rule of law and media freedom.

“We stressed that enlargement is a geostrategic imperative and the need for Serbia to further align with the EU’s foreign and security policy. We also welcomed Serbia’s steps to diversify its energy sources and routes and to reduce dependency on Russia, whose unreliability has been repeatedly demonstrated. Europe has consistently shown solidarity with Serbia through major investments in energy infrastructure and support to vulnerable households,” they wrote on social media.

Two months ago, Von der Leyen said the EU is a guarantee that Serbian families would be safe and warm in winter and that the country can enter its joint gas procurement mechanism.

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MOL in talks about possibility of purchasing stake in Serbian NIS

Hungary acknowledged that state-controlled oil and gas company MOL is in discussions aimed at exploring the possibility of acquiring a stake in NIS. Based in neighboring Serbia, the oil refiner and service station chain operator is under sanctions that the United States imposed on its owner, Russian Gazprom Neft.

Gergely Gulyás, chief of staff of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, revealed today that integrated oil and gas company MOL, headquartered in Budapest, is conducting talks about the possibility of taking over an ownership stake in NIS – Naftna industrija Srbije. Speaking at a media briefing, he added that it is in the Serbian company’s interest to end Russian ownership, pointing out that US sanctions are jeopardizing its operations.

NIS, which runs the only refinery in the country and a service station chain, hasn’t received any oil in a month and a half. The facility, located in Pančevo near Belgrade, is about to halt its operations. NIS came under sanctions because it was majority-owned by Gazprom Neft.

Its parent company Gazprom later reduced Gazprom Neft’s stake to 44.5% and switched the remainder to another subsidiary. The US apparently demands a complete Russian exit.

MOL, not Hungarian government, is in discussions concerning NIS

Gulyás clarified that MOL, a public company, is the one in discussions about a potential stake purchase – not the government. Notably, Hungary controls the company indirectly, through several entities.

The government is ready to help neighboring Serbia with regard to a deal with MOL, the official stressed. Gulyás didn’t confirm or deny speculation that his prime minister would travel to Moscow tomorrow to meet with Vladimir Putin.

Orbán visited Serbia and met with President Aleksandar Vučić today. The Hungarian leader, who managed to get an exemption earlier from the US sanctions on Russian oil and gas, said he would engage in negotiations “in the coming days or tomorrow” to secure the actual supply and “not just papers and permits.”

Russian oil and gas will continue to flow to Hungary, so Serbia will be getting it, too, Orbán claimed.

Gulyás: Fuel export boost to Serbia not to disturb domestic supply

According to earlier media reports, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) from the United Arab Emirates is among the suitors for NIS.

Serbia has asked the US to suspend sanctions for 50 days. Vučić said the government would take over NIS if a buyer isn’t found.

Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó said yesterday that MOL’s fuel deliveries to Serbia have been doubled and that they would be 2.5 higher in December on an annual scale.

Gulyás denied that the increase in exports to the neighboring country would disturb domestic supply.

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Serbia deciding whether to nationalize Gazprom-owned oil company NIS

As the United States, which imposed sanctions on Serbian oil company NIS, rejected a proposition for a change in management, difficult decisions are ahead, according to Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović. The government in Belgrade is holding an emergency meeting tomorrow, she added and pointed out that it needs to decide whether to nationalize the business. NIS runs the country’s only refinery.

US sanctions against Serbian oil refiner and fuel distributor NIS – Naftna industrija Srbije came into force on October 9, after they were postponed several times for nine months overall. Its majority owner is Russian state-controlled Gazprom, through two subsidiaries.

The Government of Serbia didn’t succeed in securing any kind of deal that could enable a smooth transition. The company owns the only refinery in the country and the biggest chain of service stations.

Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović said the US rejected NIS’s proposal of a contract for a change in management. “The difficult message for us is that we didn’t even get one day for Naftna industrija Srbije to continue working. Citizens, you understand that it is impossible to change ownership in seven or eight days,” she stressed, apparently referring to how long the refinery’s dwindling oil reserves would last.

There was speculation earlier that Hungary-based MOL could assume control, given that the country, Serbia’s northern neighbor, managed to obtain a one-year exemption from the US for Russian oil and gas.

US demands Russia’s complete exit from NIS

The US administration wants a complete exit of Russian ownership from NIS, according to Đedović Handanović. “There can be no hiding of any Russian associate, Gazprom or the Russian government behind that,” she added.

There is only approval for talks about a change in ownership and it expires on February 13, the minister explained.

“I believe that there are difficult decisions ahead of us. Namely, whether to conduct a takeover of the company, after which the damages would be determined and compensated. I know that President Vučić is against nationalization, as are many of us in the Government of Serbia and beyond and we repeated that several times,” Đedović Handanović stated.

Đedović Handanović: We hope that our Russian friends will understand the gravity of the situation

An emergency cabinet session is scheduled for tomorrow at 11 am local time, she announced and revealed that President Aleksandar Vučić would attend it.

“What I can tell you is that we won’t let our country come into jeopardy and that some of the most difficult decisions in our history are ahead of us in the following days. We hope that our Russian friends will understand the gravity of the situation and that they will help us overcome it. Because without any fault of our own, we have found ourselves in a dire situation. A political war is at hand, a geopolitical war is at hand, and we, as a small country, need to pay a high price. A small country that only wanted to be fair and just to everyone. Both to all our partners and all our friends,” Đedović Handanović underscored.

Oil crisis could turn to gas crisis

To make matters worse, Serbia is dependent on Russian gas, which comes via the Balkan Stream pipeline, an extension of TurkStream. The main question is whether the Kremlin would slash or even end the supply in case NIS is nationalized. Serbia is buying gas under short-term arrangements since May.

Furthermore, Lukoil, which operates a gas station network in the country, is also under US sanctions.

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Vučić: Serbia ready to offer premium to buy oil company NIS from Russia

Potential European and Asian investors will speak about a takeover with Russian owners of Serbian oil refiner and service station chain operator NIS, President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić said. If the talks fail, Serbia “should offer a better price… whatever it costs” to avoid “nationalization, confiscation and property usurpation,” he stressed, but also warned that “the refinery must work and the oil industry must work.”

Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović said she doesn’t see a way to overcome the blow from US sanctions against NIS and added that she is prepared to resign.

The Government of Serbia held an emergency meeting as the sanctions that the United States imposed on NIS, the owner of the country’s sole oil refinery and the largest service station chain, are threatening to cripple the economy. Since October 9, the company has been unable to draw oil through the Croatian Jadranski naftovod (JANAF) pipeline.

Gazprom is the majority owner of NIS, also known as Naftna industrija Srbije – oil industry of Serbia. Gazprom Neft, which is the one actually under direct US sanctions, has 44.5%, while Intelligence, the Russian state-controlled gas giant’s other subsidiary, holds an 11.3% stake. Serbia owns 29.9%.

A decision must be made within seven days, according to President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić, who attended the cabinet session. He revealed that potential European and Asian partners are about to speak with the Russian side about a takeover.

If a deal doesn’t come through, Serbia “should offer a better price,” even if it would need to pay for it on its own, he underscored and pointed out that the authorities have been planning a “special operation” for financing. “If we don’t have another solution, whatever it costs, as high as it costs, we will find the money,” the president claimed. He went on to say Serbia is ready to “overpay” to take the company back.

Reserves won’t matter as soon as the first delays become evident

Vučić told relevant ministers to obtain additional quantities of diesel, for EUR 40 million, gasoline, for EUR 60 million and fuel oil, in the meantime.

“I want to avoid nationalization, confiscation and property usurpation at any cost,” like what “the Bulgarians and the Romanians did,” the president asserted. Nevertheless, he warned, “the refinery must work and the oil industry must work.”

Fuel reserves are “full to the brink” and the country won’t feel any consequences for more than thirty days from now, in the president’s view, who urged against panic.

Vučić: Without any fault of our own, we were crushed like grass in a collision of elephants

“However, these reserves won’t save us the very second when they see that we have a delay for five trucks, when people don’t get bread in the morning in two bakeries. The destruction or closure of the refinery, the lack of fuel, pushes us to a total disaster,” Vučić stated.

The army will cede diesel to the healthcare sector if necessary, he added.

The situation with the US has nothing to do with Serbia, Vučić said. “It has to do with their relations with the Russians and geopolitics. Without any fault of our own, we were crushed like grass in a collision of elephants,” in the words of the head of state.

Vučić also highlighted the fact that Serbian financial institutions are at risk because of the government’s “relations with the Russians.” He said he asked US officials to allow seven to eight more days and that they accepted, though unofficially.

No choice but to act now, ministers warn

There is “no more time,” according to Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović. Serbia must take necessary measures, she warned.

“Leading the energy sector in a situation where the oil industry is sanctioned is almost impossible. I am ready even to submit my resignation, because I don’t see a way to overcome this situation. Because, simply, there is no life for us without the refinery in Pančevo. It is vital for our citizens, for our companies, for our healthcare, for our police, for our schools, for our kindergartens. Because without fuel, simply, maybe even bakeries can’t get bread every day. Just to be aware of the complexity of the situation we are in. We waited for a long time. We were very patient. We were very loyal. We spoke multiple times with our Russian partners,” she stated.

Serbia has no choice but to act, said First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Siniša Mali.

“This situation with NIS jeopardizes everything for us. But absolutely everything. Our gas. Our stability. Our credit rating,” he stressed and added that it also impacts attracting foreign investors.

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Romania to take control of Lukoil’s assets

Romania wants to take control of Lukoil’s operations to prevent an imminent freeze from the sanctions imposed by the United States. Bulgaria is already putting the Russian company’s refinery, the largest in the Balkans, under a trusteeship. Serbia announced that similar measures have been proposed to exempt Gazprom-owned NIS and its refinery, the only one in the country, from the sanctions.

Minister of Energy of Romania Bogdan Ivan seems to have endorsed neighboring Bulgaria’s approach to the issue of US sanctions against Lukoil. He said the government has to take control of the Russian company’s operations, Profit.ro reported.

The minister didn’t clarify whether it would be a temporary trusteeship. But President Nicușor Dan, who took the helm half a year ago, said there is an option for Romania to assume control for a limited period.

“We protect Romania’s energy security and firmly enforce international sanctions targeting Lukoil. My colleagues in the Ministry of Energy continue to work, together with all relevant authorities, on creating legislation that will ensure, on the one hand, full compliance with the sanctions regime established by the United States, and on the other hand, the continuity of Petrotel Ploiești’s refining activities, as well as the placement of petroleum products, without jeopardizing the supply of the national fuel market,” Ivan stated.

Minister Ivan turns more hawkish regarding sanctions against Russia

The minister claimed he would not request an extension of the November 21 deadline from the US. “Moreover, I will support the replication and uniform application of the sanctions initiated by the US throughout the European Union,” he stressed.

It marks a shift from the stance that the ministry expressed late last month, saying that the EU needs to adopt a position before Romania decides to move. Notably, Ivan held talks on November 8 in Washington with senior US officials, the article notes.

Ivan held talks on November 8 in Washington with senior US officials

“Romania must take control of the company to guarantee the full implementation of international measures, to protect the jobs of the 5,000 employees and to ensure the stability and security of the national energy system,” Ivan said.

However, the Petrotel Lukoil refinery had 542 employees on average in 2023 and another 203 worked at the company’s gas stations. Altogether, its six firms have a total payroll of under nine hundred, the article notes.

Germany placed Rosneft under state administration in 2022.

Bulgaria, Serbia struggling to keep Russian-owned refineries in operation

Nationalization could backfire because of property rights, though imposing state management is also a complicated matter. Romania earlier signaled that nationalization would be the last option.

Bulgaria has urgently adopted a law facilitating a takeover of Lukoil’s refinery in Burgas, the largest in the region. The state administrator would be authorized to sell it. It is unclear whether the measure could postpone or prevent the sanctions.

President Rumen Radev refused to sign the law and returned it to the National Assembly. It would “undermine the legal order” through “indirect nationalization” and expose public finances to a high risk, he warned.

Oil refiner and service stations operator NIS in Serbia is already under US sanctions. Russian state-owned Gazprom holds a majority stake in the company through two subsidiaries.

Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović said yesterday that the “Russian owners” sent a request to the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to renew the company’s license due to “negotiations with a third party.”

The government in Belgrade has supported the request, she added. The Russian side is prepared to cede control and influence over NIS to a third party, Đedović Handanović revealed.

According to media speculations, one of the candidates is Hungary-based MOL, given that the country managed to obtain a one-year exemption from the US for Russian oil and gas.

Lukoil is operating in Serbia as well, where it has a chain of fuel stations.

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US torpedoes Lukoil’s deal to sell its overseas business to Gunvor

The United States Department of the Treasury said it wouldn’t allow Gunvor to “operate and profit,” calling it “the Kremlin’s puppet.” The energy trader responded that the statement is “fundamentally misinformed and false,” but it withdrew its proposal for Lukoil’s international assets.

For a minute it seemed that a potential fuel crisis in Europe – especially in the southeast – was going to be prevented. Russian oil company Lukoil, which came under US sanctions, agreed late last month to sell its foreign assets to Gunvor Group. The proposed transaction could have become a model for the resolution of sanctions against Serbia-based NIS, which operates the country’s only refinery and the largest chain of service stations.

A comprehensive reshuffling of Russian energy business in Europe apparently depends on peace negotiations for Ukraine with the administration of President Donald Trump. Amid a lack of progress, it scuttled the acquisition.

“President Trump has been clear that the war must end immediately. As long as Putin continues the senseless killings, the Kremlin’s puppet, Gunvor, will never get a license to operate and profit,” the Treasury Department said.

Gunvor scraps Lukoil deal after US threat

Gunvor, one of the largest energy traders in the world, is registered in Cyprus. The company, which operates out of Geneva and several other offices, gave up on the deal.

“The Treasury Department statement about Gunvor is fundamentally misinformed and false. Gunvor is and has always been open and transparent about its ownership and business, and has for more than a decade actively distanced itself from Russia, stopped trading in line with sanctions, sold off Russian assets, and publicly condemned the war in Ukraine. We welcome the opportunity to ensure this clear misunderstanding is corrected. In the meantime, Gunvor withdraws its proposal for Lukoil’s international assets,” the firm said.

Swedish billionaire Torbjörn Törnqvist, Gunvor’s CEO, owns a 85% share

Chief executive officer Torbjörn Törnqvist, a Swedish billionaire, owns 85% of the company. He co-founded it in 2000 with Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko, who sold his stake to his partner in 2014 after coming under US sanctions himself.

Russia reacted to the US Treasury Department’s new accusations by calling the trade restrictions illegal.

Refinery in Romania not attractive for purchase

Lukoil’s facilities up for sale include the largest oil refinery in the Balkans – Lukoil Neftohim Burgas in Bulgaria, as well as the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Romania. The Russian company also has fuel retail networks in Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, North Macedonia, Croatia, Serbia, and Montenegro.

Notably, the refinery in Romania doesn’t seem to be attractive for possible buyers, Profit.ro reported. It is designed for processing the Russian Ural type of oil, rich in sulfur. Adaptation to sweeter crude would require major investments, maybe bigger than for an entirely new refinery, according to the article.

A crucial factor as well is that Lukoil’s businesses abroad were worth an estimated USD 22 billion in 2023, over three times more than Gunvor.

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ACER asks Greek authorities to probe power market for manipulation

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) is warning of signs of manipulation in Greece’s day-ahead electricity market (DAM) registered during the summer of 2024.

The region of Southeastern Europe experienced several months of high electricity prices, with average monthly levels close to EUR 200 per MWh in the case of Greece.

ACER used data from the Hellenic Energy Exchange (HEnEx) to calculate the hourly day-ahead demand and supply curves for the Greek bidding zone in the said period.

It included 93 observations, meaning 93 pairs of demand and supply curves, from June 15 to September 15 of last year.

Based on the above, four scenarios were formed, simulating and analyzing market conditions on different days and times. The baseline included all the cases and the clearing price was always above EUR 100 per MWh.

The so-called stressed scenario involved 17 observations, when prices climbed close to EUR 500 per MWh, and the critical scenario had two observations, with prices of EUR 900 per MWh.

There was even an extreme scenario,  covering September 4, when at 20:00 the price reached its maximum, with EUR 942 per MWh.

650 MWh would have made enormous difference

ACER noted that if an extra 650 MWh of energy were available during that hour, it would have reduced the price by a huge EUR 630 per MWh to EUR 311 per MWh.

The extra power could have arrived either internally from peak power plants, or through interconnections with neighboring countries.

The result is similar for the stressed scenario – 420 per MWh lower, and the baseline, when the level would have come in at 100 per MWh down from the actual prices.

Capacity withholding as a possible cause

The regulator added that during times of pressure in the system, the market power of producers became much more pronounced and their bidding behavior changed.

Based on the above, ACER reaches two conclusions. One, interconnections in the region must be utilized based on the 70% European rule to bring prices down.

Secondly, Greek authorities need to initiate a probe into whether market power was used to manipulate or abuse dominant positions, for example in the form of capacity withholding.

ACER also said data from HEnEx and the Regulatory Authority for Energy, Waste and Water (RAAEY or RAEWW) are incomplete and that more transparency is necessary moving forward.

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