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Strengthening Europe’s Energy Sovereignty: The Imperative of a Clean Heat Transition

While often framed as a macroeconomic abstraction, Europe’s reliance on fossil fuel imports carries direct, tangible consequences for millions of households. Domestic energy security is fundamentally tied to the home; space and water heating account for 77.6% of the average EU household’s energy consumption, with approximately one-third of these homes relying on gas. By 2025, 90% of the EU’s gas supply was sourced from third countries, creating a strategic vulnerability to energy coercion that endangers the stability of millions of residences.

Diversification vs. Decarbonization: The REPowerEU Challenge

Historically, Russia served as the primary architect of Europe’s gas supply. In the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the EU successfully pivoted, slashing Russian imports from 45% to 12%. This shift was codified through the REPowerEU Regulation, which aims to secure energy independence by permanently banning Russian fossil gas.

However, the broader imperative is not merely to swap suppliers, but to reduce gas demand entirely. This requires equal commitment to the other two pillars of the 2022 REPowerEU Plan: energy conservation and an accelerated clean energy transition. Current projections are sobering:

  • Heat Pump Shortfall: Europe is currently on track to meet only half of its deployment targets.

  • Demand Impact: This lag means fossil gas demand will likely only decrease by 60% of 2024 Russian import levels, rather than the intended 120%.

Bridging the €78 Billion Funding Gap

Achieving a clean heat transition requires significant capital. A study by LCP Delta for the Cool Heating Coalition identifies an annual investment gap of €78 billion through 2050. At present, combined public and private sector contributions cover only half of this requirement.

To close this disparity, Europe must look toward smarter fiscal reallocation:

  • Subsidy Realignment: The EU currently directs approximately €111 billion per year toward fossil fuel subsidies. Redirecting this capital toward renewable solutions would effectively bridge the clean heat funding gap.

  • Innovative Business Models: Policymakers should incentivize “social leasing” frameworks. This requires updating the Consumer Credit Directive to ensure these schemes are covered by robust consumer protection laws.

  • The Role of ETS2: The upcoming ETS2—which prices emissions from buildings and road transport—will be a pivotal market driver. When paired with the Social Climate Fund, it provides a mechanism to finance the transition while shielding the most vulnerable consumers.

The Path to Strategic Autonomy

The postponement of ETS2 for one year in December 2025 sent a confusing signal to the clean heat market. There is no longer room for delay. Member States must utilize this additional window to aggressively support the shift to decarbonized heating, remediate housing inadequacies, and reduce the energy load of the continent’s worst-performing buildings.

Since 2022, the EU has demonstrated remarkable resilience in reducing its dependence on Russian energy. However, as new geopolitical shocks emerge, Europe must prioritize the elimination of all strategic vulnerabilities. The legal framework exists; the transition now requires the political resolve to see it through.

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Renewable Gas Injections in the EU Rise to 4.3 bcm Over Two Gas Years, ENTSOG Reports

Renewable gas injections into natural gas grids across the European Union have climbed steadily over the past two gas years, reaching 4.3 billion cubic meters (bcm), according to the latest assessment by European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

The report, covering the period from October 1, 2023, to September 30, 2025, examines annual renewable gas injections into transmission and distribution networks. It encompasses both biomethane and renewable hydrogen.

Steady Growth in Renewable Gas Volumes

According to ENTSOG, renewable gas injections rose from 38.1 TWh to 43.2 TWh over the two most recent gas years—equivalent to approximately 4.3 bcm—representing an annual increase of 12%.

This marks ENTSOG’s second dedicated report on renewable gas injections into European gas networks. The first assessment was included in its 2024 Annual Report, published in April 2025, and covered data for the 2023–2024 gas year.

The latest growth was primarily driven by the commissioning of new biomethane plants and existing facilities reaching their nominal production capacity.

Renewable hydrogen injections remained limited. Germany was the only member state reporting hydrogen injection into its gas system, with volumes declining from 3 GWh to 1 GWh during the reporting period.

It should be noted that the report does not account for biomethane flows occurring outside transmission system operator (TSO) and distribution system operator (DSO) grids.

Biomethane Growth Without Major Infrastructure Investments

Piotr Kuś, ENTSOG’s General Director, emphasized that renewable and low-carbon gases can be readily integrated into existing natural gas infrastructure, supporting the transport of sustainable and secure energy molecules.

He stressed that gas TSOs will continue to provide the necessary infrastructure to facilitate the energy transition.

“In particular, biomethane market growth can be facilitated without the need for significant infrastructure investments. This growth is essential if we are serious about meeting the EU’s REPowerEU target of 35 bcm biomethane by 2030,” Kuś said, referring to the European Union’s REPowerEU objectives.

Five Countries Dominate Renewable Gas Injections

The distribution of biomethane injections varies significantly among EU member states. Five countries—France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, and Netherlands—accounted for 94% of total renewable gas injections, the report reveals.

Several member states reported no injections, in some cases due to on-site consumption of renewable gases that eliminates the need for grid injection.

Among the five leading countries, all recorded significant increases in biomethane injections into TSO and DSO grids during the last gas year.

France posted a 2 TWh rise in injections, reaching 13 TWh—approximately 1.3 bcm—by the end of the reporting period. The increase was attributed to the continued rollout of new injection points and the gradual ramp-up of production sites to full operational capacity, a process that often takes time following initial commissioning, according to the Report on Annual Renewable Gas Injections into Gas Networks.

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Romania plans to lease unproductive land for renewable energy projects

Romania is drafting legislation that would enable granting concessions for the construction of renewable energy plants on unproductive and degraded state-owned agricultural land. The initiative aims to establish fast-track areas for renewable energy projects, with all necessary permitting procedures limited to 12 months.

The legislation would allow the State Domains Agency (ADS), which manages state-owned agricultural land, to grant concessions on areas of land that are not suitable for agriculture, but can be used for green energy production, according to a report by Profit.ro. The initiative is part of the RePowerEU component of Romania’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).

These areas should be officially designated following a mapping process to identify available land, subsurface, marine, or inland water areas needed for developing renewable energy power plants, as well as related grids and energy storage facilities, including thermal storage, to support achieving the 2030 renewable energy target.

The areas for renewable energy projects will be designated after a mapping process

The deadline to designate these areas is February 21, but it is unlikely to be met, given that a contract to procure the necessary geospatial data management software has been partially cancelled. The ADS has now launched a new tender for the geospatial data system, valuing the job at RON 7.7 million (around EUR 1.51 million), according to Profit.ro.

In the so-called “areas suitable for accelerating renewable energy projects,” the procedures for granting all necessary legal authorizations would not take more than 12 months in total, according to the report.

The Romanian Government has long planned to amend the law on the ADS to give it the authority to award concessions to public and private entities for the purpose of producing energy from renewable sources such as hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, the news portal recalled.

State-owned power utility Hidroelectrica, the largest electricity producer in Romania, intended to build a photovoltaic park of 1.5 GW on thousands of hectares of land managed by the ADS. It would be the largest in Europe.

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Romania plans to lease unproductive land for renewable energy projects

Romania is drafting legislation that would enable granting concessions for the construction of renewable energy plants on unproductive and degraded state-owned agricultural land. The initiative aims to establish fast-track areas for renewable energy projects, with all necessary permitting procedures limited to 12 months.

The legislation would allow the State Domains Agency (ADS), which manages state-owned agricultural land, to grant concessions on areas of land that are not suitable for agriculture, but can be used for green energy production, according to a report by Profit.ro. The initiative is part of the RePowerEU component of Romania’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).

These areas should be officially designated following a mapping process to identify available land, subsurface, marine, or inland water areas needed for developing renewable energy power plants, as well as related grids and energy storage facilities, including thermal storage, to support achieving the 2030 renewable energy target.

The areas for renewable energy projects will be designated after a mapping process

The deadline to designate these areas is February 21, but it is unlikely to be met, given that a contract to procure the necessary geospatial data management software has been partially cancelled. The ADS has now launched a new tender for the geospatial data system, valuing the job at RON 7.7 million (around EUR 1.51 million), according to Profit.ro.

In the so-called “areas suitable for accelerating renewable energy projects,” the procedures for granting all necessary legal authorizations would not take more than 12 months in total, according to the report.

The Romanian Government has long planned to amend the law on the ADS to give it the authority to award concessions to public and private entities for the purpose of producing energy from renewable sources such as hydro, solar, wind, biomass, and geothermal, the news portal recalled.

State-owned power utility Hidroelectrica, the largest electricity producer in Romania, intended to build a photovoltaic park of 1.5 GW on thousands of hectares of land managed by the ADS. It would be the largest in Europe.

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Several EU member states face uncertainty amid looming Russian gas ban

The European Union’s proposed measures to phase out imports of Russian oil and gas would destroy Hungary’s security of supply, according to Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó, who spoke at the meeting of energy ministers in Luxembourg. Slovakia is in a similar situation, while Romania pointed to the difficulty of proving the origin of foreign gas.

The draft regulation that the Council of the EU adopted doesn’t explicitly call for a ban on the transit of gas to third countries, while it foresees a temporary suspension for member states in case of supply disruption. The proposal also allows the possibility of importing non-Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline.

The meeting of the so-called Energy Council highlighted several issues and concerns among EU member states about the proposed ban on Russian natural gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG). Energy ministers in the Council of the EU adopted their position ahead of negotiations with the European Parliament on measures that they plan to introduce on January 1.

There would be a transition period for existing contracts for Russian fossil gas. Short-term ones concluded before June 17 this year would remain in force until June 17, 2026. Long-term contracts may run until January 1, 2028. It is also the targeted date for ending imports of Russian oil.

Szijjártó: The remaining infrastructure, physically and capacity-wise, is not able to supply Hungary

“The real impact of this regulation is that our safe supply of energy in Hungary is gonna be killed,” the country’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stressed at the meeting.

He clarified that he wasn’t speaking about prices, and warned of damage from the proposed regulation – in the name of diversification.

“As now we are phasing out supply routes towards Hungary, the remaining infrastructure, physically and capacity-wise, is not able to supply the country. This has nothing to do with politics. This has nothing to do with Russia. This has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine. This is mathematics and physics,” Szijjártó stressed.

He also reiterated that his country would be left dependent on one oil supply route, via Croatia. It would leave Hungary “totally defenseless to a monopoly” as the transit fee doubled since the start of the war and it is five times higher than the current European benchmark, the minister underscored.

Bulgaria asks for protection from arbitration for gas TSOs

Slovak Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Denisa Saková said the supply of gas to her country is limited. There are interconnections with all neighbors, but external capacity bottlenecks remain, she argued. Bulgaria asked for provisions protecting gas transmission system operators (TSOs) from arbitration and financial penalties.

Romania voted for the draft regulation, but warned that identifying the origin of imported gas would be difficult

Secretary of State in Romania’s Ministry of Energy Cristian Bușoi urged for a workable and harmonized verification system and for the development of clear guidelines.

“This is not a matter of energy policy, but of strategic autonomy and European solidarity. At the same time, as we move from political vision to implementation, we believe it is important that the new authorization and verification system remains practical, transparent and proportionate. The additional requirements to demonstrate the exact country of production represent a new level of responsibility that, while understandable, and we support this in principle, may be difficult to fulfill in practice, particularly for pipeline [and] natural gas traded on hubs, and shipments transport, including LNG cargos that involve multiple sources and blending,” Bușoi told the ministers.

Council of EU proposes suspension clause

Notably, the Energy Council’s position, part of the REPowerEU plan and sanctions against Russia, is that the regulation should contain a suspension clause. The European Commission could temporarily lift the ban on Russian gas and LNG in case of significant disruptions of supply.

Another important element is the possibility of importing non-Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline if the fuel’s origin is proven.

Gas transit through EU not subject to prohibition

Energy ministers said the EU should ensure that natural gas which crosses the 27-member bloc under a transit procedure is not ultimately entering into free circulation in the union.

It would imply that Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, non-EU countries, could continue to buy Russian gas that is delivered through Balkan Stream. It is the extension of TurkStream running through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary.

“Any gas which, before its import into the EU, was exported from the Russian Federation, either via direct export from Russia to the EU or via indirect export through a third country, should, except in case of transit, be subject to the prohibition”, the document reads.

Serbia still hasn’t signed a long-term gas supply contract with the Russian side, and the previous one expired in May. Moreover, the United States have imposed sanctions on Gazprom-controlled NIS, Serbia’s national oil importer, refiner and operator of a chain of service stations.

On top of it all, hydropower output is at a record low due to chronic drought, while coal is being imported as domestic mines don’t produce enough lignite.

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European Commission: Russian gas ban doesn’t include transit to Serbia, BiH

The proposed ban on importing Russian natural gas to the European Union doesn’t apply to the transit of Russian gas, so it doesn’t affect the supply of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the European Commission’s spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen told Balkan Green Energy News.

After the Council of the European Union on Monday adopted its negotiating position on the European Commission’s draft regulation to phase out imports of Russian natural gas by January 1, 2028, reports emerged that Bulgaria would halt the transit of Russian gas to Serbia from January 1, 2026. The council agreed with the initiative to prohibit imports of Russian gas, starting on January 1, 2026, while maintaining a transition period for existing contracts.

Notably, Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov announced in late September that his country would suspend Russian gas transit for short-term contracts in 2026 as part of EU plans to cut off Russian gas imports completely, Reuters reported.

Serbia receives natural gas from Russia via the Balkan Stream. The pipeline is an extension of TurkStream that passes through Bulgaria and Serbia. TurkStream delivers gas from Russia across the Black Sea to Turkey.

Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary, Serbia’s neighbors, are also supplied via Balkan Stream.

With regards to transit via EU territory, the EU proposal only requires more transparency on transited volumes to third countries

Balkan Green Energy News asked the European Commission to clarify if the supply of Russian gas to Serbia and BiH via Bulgaria would be halted as of January 1, 2026, but also how the EU could assist Serbia and BiH in that case.

The European Commission’s spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen noted that its REPowerEU proposal foresees a prohibition of the import of Russian gas into the EU.

“The EU import prohibition doesn’t concern the transit of Russian gas through the EU territory to third countries – including to Serbia and BiH. It doesn’t therefore affect Serbia’s or BiH gas supply,” she stressed.

With regards to transit via EU territory, in her words, the EU proposal only requires more transparency on transited volumes to third countries.

EU candidate countries are expected to progressively align their legislation with the EU acquis and rules

However, EU candidate countries are expected to progressively align their legislation with the EU acquis and rules as part of the accession process, Itkonen pointed out and added that it includes REPowerEU regulation once it becomes EU law.

Of note, the draft regulation to phase out imports of Russian natural gas constitutes a central element of the EU’s REPowerEU roadmap to end the EU’s dependency on Russian energy.

According to Itkonen, as a way to ensure security of supply, candidate countries including Serbia should diversify away from unreliable energy suppliers such as Russia. Following Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine, it became evident how important this is and what problems it can create for any European country, she asserted.

“The EU is supporting the WB countries for diversifying their energy supplies”

Anna-Kaisa Itkonen (photo: European Commission)

“The EU is supporting the Western Balkan countries for diversifying their energy supplies and for closer integration into the EU’s energy networks, both for electricity and gas, as well as through investments in renewable energy and decarbonization efforts,” Itkonen underlined.

After energy ministers in the Council of the EU have agreed on the institution’s negotiating position on the European Commission’s draft regulation, the next step is the adoption of the European Parliament’s position.

The council and the parliament would then start negotiations on the regulation. When the two institutions approve a regulation, it directly applies to all member states.

The meeting of the so-called Energy Council highlighted several issues and concerns among EU member states about the proposed ban on Russian natural gas.

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EU outlines measures to end Russian gas, oil imports by end-2027

The European Commission set out a plan to phase out by the end of 2027 the purchases of Russian natural gas, including in the form of LNG, and oil. The package includes proposals aiming to replace Russian nuclear fuel and materials as well.

The European Union will end its dependency on Russian energy by stopping the import of Russian gas and oil and phasing out Russian nuclear energy, while ensuring stable energy supplies and prices, the European Commission said. Its new REPowerEU Roadmap targets full energy independence from Russia.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU was lowering the share of Russian fossil fuels under the REPowerEU plan and via sanctions. However, Russian gas imports rebounded last year by 18%, led by Italy, Czechia and France. The commissioners argued that the “overdependency on Russian energy imports is a security threat” and called for new coordinated actions.

Von der Leyen: It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier

“The war in Ukraine has brutally exposed the risks of blackmail, economic coercion and price shocks. With REPowerEU, we have diversified our energy supply and drastically reduced Europe’s former dependency on Russian fossil fuels. It is now time for Europe to completely cut off its energy ties with an unreliable supplier. And energy that comes to our continent should not pay for a war of aggression against Ukraine. We owe this to our citizens, to our companies and to our brave Ukrainian friends,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated.

The volumes of imported Russian gas fell to last year’s 52 billion cubic meters from 150 billion in 2021. The share of Russian gas imports dropped from 45% to 19%. All imports of the country’s coal have been banned by sanctions. Russian oil imports have shrunk from 27% at the beginning of 2022 to the current 3%.

Member states need to roll out national plans by end-2025

The new measures have been designed to preserve the security of energy supply while limiting any impact on prices and markets. They would be applied in parallel to advancing the energy transition.

“Last year we in the EU paid EUR 23 billion to Russia for our energy imports. That is EUR 1.8 billion per month. This needs to stop,” European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen stressed.

The administration in Brussels expects to replace up to 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas by 2030, which means a decrease in demand by 40-50 billion by 2027. It sees an increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacities by 200 billion cubic meters by 2028, which is five times more than current EU imports of Russian gas. The EU still hasn’t imposed sanctions on Russian LNG.

Member states will be asked to prepare national plans by the end of this year, the announcement reveals. All the measures will be accompanied by continuous efforts to accelerate the energy transition and diversify energy supplies, including via the aggregation of gas demand and a better use of infrastructure, according to the document.

Administration in Brussels intends to tackle Russian shadow tanker fleet carrying oil

The European Commission said the proposed measures would improve the transparency, monitoring and traceability of Russian gas.

“Crucially, new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas (pipeline and LNG) will be prevented, and existing spot contracts will be stopped by the end of 2025. This measure will ensure that already by the end of this year, the EU will have slashed by one third remaining supplies of Russian gas. The commission will further propose to stop all remaining imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027,” the plan reads.

Under the roadmap, the commission will put forward new actions to address Russia’s shadow fleet transporting oil. It said the vessels are circumventing sanctions and the international oil price cap.

EU depends on Russia for quarter of its uranium conversion, enrichment needs

As regards nuclear, the proposals coming next month cover enriched uranium and supply contracts co-signed by the Euratom Supply Agency (ESA) for uranium, enriched uranium and other nuclear materials. The EU intends to increase its production of medical radioisotopes.

“While diversification efforts might create uranium and fuel price volatility over access to uranium supply on global markets, major impacts on electricity prices are unlikely as the price of nuclear fuel and related services represent only a small portion of the final cost of electricity from nuclear power plants,” the plan adds.

The EU intends to increase its production of medical radioisotopes

More than 14% of uranium was sourced in the EU from Russia in 2024. The commissioners highlighted the concentration of uranium conversion and enrichment services – needed to transform processed uranium into the material for nuclear fuel manufacturing – in a limited number of companies.

In 2024, around 23% of the whole EU demand for uranium conversion services and almost 24% of enrichment was covered by Russia.

While more than 85% of uranium is produced in Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Namibia, Niger and Russia, uranium mines currently operate in many countries and unmined deposits exist in some EU member states.

It will take years to make use of domestic, other Western resources

European enrichment companies have expansion plans but the first new enrichment installation is not expected earlier than 2027.

“Moreover, the global uranium conversion industry is facing obstacles in ramping up production due to technological complexity and market uncertainties, and new conversion capacities are currently announced only for early 2030s. The EU’s nuclear sector also continues to rely on Russia for some spare parts and maintenance services,” the European Commission said.

EEB: Replacing Russian gas with US gas is senselless

The European Environmental Bureau (EEB) noted that imports of Russian gas including LNG rose 18% in 2024 despite no growth in demand.

Numbers of shadow LNG tankers from Russia have also increased, as have indirect imports of Russian energy via third countries, it added. Plans to tackle the shadow fleet are vague, the organization claimed. It went on to label the United States a clearly unreliable trade partner.

“Phasing out Russian coal and gas only to replace it with a dependence on US fracking gas is not in the EU’s security or financial interests. EU countries should instead focus on accelerating their deployment of wind and solar energies. The technologies to move to 100% renewable energy are available,” EEB’s Policy Manager for Climate and Energy Luke Haywood underscored.