Greece to hit its 2030 goal for solar power already next year

The Greek solar sector is at a crossroads, as growth and profitability will be dictated by energy storage installations.

The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for fixed-tilt utility-scale photovoltaics in the country is EUR 33 per MWh, among the lowest in Europe, according to Wood Mackenzie. It is expected to drop further in the following years, landing at EUR 30 per MWh in 2030, after which it would reach EUR 40 per MWh in 2040, based on projections that Research Analyst Victoria Ortega showed at a Solarplaza event in Athens.

The Greek market is expected to add 2.5 GW of solar this year, with the total reaching 12.2 GW. In fact, the country will achieve its 2030 goal of 13.5 GW during 2026, said Policy Advisor Stelios Psomas of the Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (HELAPCO).

However, profitability in the PV segment has taken a hit, as a result of low wholesale prices and curtailments. Research group Baringa estimates that investments at risk of being delayed amount to EUR 2.25 billion.

More storage needed by 2030

In order to maintain momentum, the solar market needs energy storage. Standalone battery investments are at 6.4 GW in various stages of development and the first systems are projected to come online by next spring. HELAPCO warns that 8 GW would be needed by 2030 to balance the market.

Based on data from the Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO), grid connection offers have been given so far for storage units of a total of 1,468 MW in operating power and a guaranteed capacity of 3,420 MWh. It translates to 2.3 hours on average.

HELAPCO estimates that more support is needed for behind-the-meter systems, where it expects 300 MW to get a green light in 2026.

The sector also needs support for residential and commercial storage.

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October 30, 2025

by AEA in News

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

The latest modeling for the wholesale electricity market in Greece shows ever-decreasing prices at times when solar power output is the strongest within the day. The trend points to the formation of a so-called bathtub curve in the daily price charts at the power exchange, as a result of the expected continuation of the photovoltaic capacity surge.

Greece experienced its first negative prices this year. They intensified in August and September, weakening the profitability of investments in the production of renewable electricity.

This year, market participants expect at least 2 GW of photovoltaics to connect to the grid, along with the first standalone battery storage units.

Currently, prices usually fall to a negative EUR 1 per MWh at the most. However, the pace of installations indicates that prices will go even lower. According to the Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Energy Producers (SPEF), analytical models indicate that for every 1,000 MW of new solar capacity, the so-called system marginal price (SMP) at noon is lowered by EUR 10 per MWh.

Storage acts as a shield against price drops. But even if as many batteries are added as photovoltaics, the wholesale price is seen at a negative EUR 5 per MWh on average during the hours of maximum solar production, the organization’s Chairman Stelios Loumakis said. The level would fluctuate depending on the season and conditions in the system.

With the addition of 500 MW of wind energy per year, the price is at EUR 7.5 per MWh below zero. If system demand also rises, then the level is slightly higher, at EUR 5 per MWh in negative territory.

Loumakis: The duck curve will eventually become the bathtub curve

Especially concerning is that such price formation would turn systematic, almost daily. Loumakis expects more than 1,000 MW of annual solar installations in the following years. Therefore, the actual price could be much lower.

As things stand today, the daily power price curve resembles a duck in markets with high renewable energy penetration. Medium prices in the morning are followed by a drop at noon and a great rise later in the day. A much more pronounced curve is expected in the near future, looking more like a bathtub, he explained.

Loumakis warned years ago about the repercussions from a rapid rise in solar energy, saying that the market would overheat and lower profits.

Up to 3 GW expected this year

Other market players echoed his concerns. CEO of MGD Energy Panagiotis Mourtopalas said at the Renewable and Storage Forum that business plans are under pressure because of curtailments and negative prices. This year, 2,000 jobs have been lost in the renewable energy market as a result.

The Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (HELAPCO) estimates that new capacities this year would amount to between 2.6 GW and 3 GW, with no sign of slowing down.

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May 7, 2025

by AEA in News

Self-consumption capacity set to break 1 GW in Greece

Renewable energy projects for self-consumption are expected to reach 1 GW this year in Greece.

According to the Green Tank, at the end of March 2025, self-consumption capacity amounted to 937.6 MW, of which the overwhelming majority (871.9 MW) was in photovoltaics.

It should be noted that last year the government introduced a big change in the segment. The net metering regime was abandoned in favor of net billing, following European guidelines.

Insufficient capacity limit

There were 32,955 self-consumption units in the country at the end of the first quarter. Projects in operation plus remaining applications are estimated at 1,865 MW, which is near the 2 GW ceiling, set by law.

Energy communities, small companies, farmers and individuals have asked for the available capacity to be increased.

They also complain that the Hellenic Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO or DEDDIE) is too slow with connecting them to the grid. The operator has mostly been integrating units in the category of up to 10.8 kW, while ignoring larger projects.

The Renewable Energy Sources Operator and Guarantees of Origin (DAPEEP) began accepting net billing applications for projects of over 10.8 kW only last month. It means it needs to accelerate connections to keep pace.

Renewable energy aggregators have warned that the regulatory framework is unclear when it comes to such projects and their representation in the market.

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