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Slovenia draws up first climate vulnerability, risks assessment for energy sector

In cooperation with the Jožef Stefan Institute, the Ministry of the Environment, Climate and Energy has issued the first national assessment of climate vulnerability and risks for the energy sector. The analysis shows that the sector is moderately vulnerable under current climate conditions.

The main threats to the energy sector in Slovenia are floods, fires, storms, landslides, sleet and wet snow, heatwaves, and drought.

The assessment of climate vulnerability and risks for the energy sector was produced in line with the IPCC AR5 methodology and the national guidelines of the Faculty of Biotechnology.

The greatest threat to the energy sector are floods, which jeopardize fuel storage, substations, electricity distribution networks, and other elements of the supply chain, the ministry underscored.

The most important subsystem is liquid fuels

By using weighting and considering the current energy mix and the state of infrastructure, the most important subsystems for the functioning of the overall system are liquid fuels (34%) and electricity (33%), followed by natural gas (18%), solid fuels (10%), and heat (5%), the assessment reads.

This reflects a high dependence on imported liquid fuels and the key role of electricity in all consumption sectors, the ministry explained.
The overall weighted vulnerability score for the energy sector is 2.3 on a scale of one to five, with the electricity subsystem having the highest vulnerability, 2.6.

Electricity distribution grids, solar power plants, and fuel transport and logistic routes also show high vulnerability, according to the assessment.

Subsector ratings:

  • electricity subsector (2.6)
  • liquid fuel supply (2.2)
  • solid fuel supply (2.2)
  • natural gas supply (around 2.0)
  • heat supply (1.9)

Regarding individual elements of the sector, the most vulnerable are the electricity distribution network (3.5), electricity transmission system and imports (3), preparation of firewood, wood chips and pellets, and photovoltaic plants (3); vehicles/tanks for liquid fuels and vehicles/trucks for solid fuels, fuel stations, and other renewable energy sources (2.5).

The identified risks are expected to intensify in the future

The assessment reveals that Slovenia’s energy sector comprises critical elements whose failure could lead to significant supply disruptions.

It provides a technical basis and starting point for preparing a climate change adaptation strategy and for drafting measures such as strengthening infrastructure resilience, reviewing planning for new facilities, and incorporating climate risks into strategic documents and investment plans, according to the ministry.

Climate change scenarios indicate that the already identified risks will intensify in the future – especially floods, storms, and heatwaves.

The ministry said it would be necessary to implement adaptation measures to ensure a reliable energy supply.

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Europe’s Environment 2025 report: Not good

Biodiversity is declining and water stress is affecting one third of Europe’s population and territory, while the frequency and magnitude of climate-related disasters are increasing. In short, this is the message from the report Europe’s Environment 2025.

​Europe’s Environment 2025 is the most comprehensive analysis on the current state and outlook for the continent’s environment, climate, and sustainability, building on data from across 38 countries, according to the European Environment Agency (EEA).

The outlook for most environmental trends is concerning and poses major risks to Europe’s economic prosperity, security, and quality of life, the authors warned. The agency said climate change and environmental degradation pose a direct threat to Europe’s competitiveness, pointing out that it depends on natural resources.

Progress on a range of factors that enable the shift towards sustainability – such as innovation, green employment, and sustainable finance – gives cause for hope, EEA added.

​More than 80% of protected habitats are in a poor or bad state

The report shows biodiversity is declining across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems in Europe due to persistent pressures driven by unsustainable production and consumption patterns, demonstrated most notably in the food system.

More than 80% of protected habitats are in a poor or bad state, with 60% to 70% of soils degraded, the document reads.

On a positive note, the extent of protected areas increased over the past decade – by 2022, 26.1% of the European Union’s land and 12.3% of its seas were protected. However, designating protected areas alone does not guarantee that biodiversity is effectively protected, the authors wrote.

​Water stress is affecting one third of Europe’s population and territory

The report’s findings point to severe pressure on water resources: water stress is affecting one third of Europe’s population and territory.

Only 37% of surface water bodies had a good or high ecological status in 2021, with the degradation of aquatic ecosystems threatening Europe’s water resilience. Agriculture is responsible for the most significant pressure on both surface and groundwater, data revealed.

EEA recalled that Europe is the fastest-warming continent on the planet.

Weather- and climate-related extremes caused economic losses of assets estimated at EUR 738 billion in the EU’s 27 member states over the period 1980-2023, with over EUR 162 billion in costs from 2021 to 2023 alone, the report reads.

Over 70,000 people in Europe are estimated to have died from heat in 2022.

The average annual economic losses in the 2020‑2023 period were 2.5 times as high as in the preceding decade, from 2010 to 2019, according to the report.

Downpours are increasing in severity, with several regions subject to catastrophic floods in recent years, while extreme heat, once rare, is becoming more frequent, with deadly consequences: over 70,000 people in Europe are estimated to have died from heat in 2022.

The greatest challenges call for a need to rethink the links between the economy and the natural environment, land, water and natural resources, EEA underscored.

“We cannot afford to lower our climate, environment and sustainability ambitions. Our state of environment report, co-created with 38 countries, clearly sets out the science-based knowledge and demonstrates why we need to act. In the European Union, we have the policies, the tools and the knowledge, and decades of experience in working together towards our sustainability goals. What we do today will shape our future,” EEA Executive Director Leena Ylä-Mononen said.

Bright spots

The report also highlighted the good results of environmental protection policies in Europe.

The EU has cut its domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37% since 1990, largely driven by reducing fossil fuel use and doubling the share of renewables since 2005.

All member states have reduced their reliance on fossil fuels and shifted towards more sustainable energy sources over the last decade, while increased energy efficiency has brought down demand.

In 2023, renewable energy sources represented over 24% of the EU’s final energy use, a record high.

The bloc’s industrial system has managed to reduce emissions by more than 35% from 2005 to 2023, while emissions from buildings fell by more than 35% between 2005 and 2023.

Significant progress has been made in reducing pollution in Europe. EU policies led to improvements in air quality and reduced premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter from 2005 to 2022 by 45%, according to the Europe’s Environment 2025 report.

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Slovenia’s sole coal-fired power plant Šoštanj to keep main unit offline until fall

As of this year, Slovenia’s only coal-fired power plant, Termoelektrarna Šoštanj (TEŠ), has shifted its primary focus to supplying heat, with electricity now sold as a byproduct. The ongoing overhaul of its unit 6 is expected to be completed in the coming days, but the 600 MW block will not be restarted until the end of September, when demand for heat is set to rise.

As part of the coal-phaseout process, targeted for completion in 2033, the Government of Slovenia decided last year to set aside EUR 403 million to save TEŠ and coal mine Velenje from bankruptcy and take over both from state-owned power utility Holding Slovenske Elektrarne (HSE).

TEŠ hopes the fall months will drive revenues

TEŠ hopes that the fall months will enable it to meet this year’s revenue target, as the operation of unit 6 is unprofitable in the summer due to low market prices for electricity and reduced demand for heat. This year, the power plant aims to earn EUR 400 million from the sale of heat and electricity.

Apart from unit 6, TEŠ operates only one other coal-fired generator, unit 5, with a capacity of 345 MW, while its first four blocks have been shut down.

The changed circumstances have been challenging for TEŠ, according to its CEO, Branko Debeljak. As HSE no longer sells TEŠ’s electricity, the plant had to set up its own sales department and seek customers on the market. Even so, the first four months of 2025 were quite successful when it comes to electricity sales, says Debeljak. The plant sold 1,045 GWh of electricity, generating revenues of EUR 138 million, or EUR 29 million more than initially planned, according to him.

The overhaul of unit 6 began in April

The overhaul of unit 6 began on April 22 and was expected to be completed by June 20. However, due to delays in the delivery of components, it had to be extended until early July. The completion of the overhaul will be followed by a short trial run, and a restart is planned at the end of September when the need for heat supply is set to rise again.

Slovenia aims at a 55% drop in emissions by 2033, and an early closure of its only coal-fired plant could help achieve that target. It seems likely that TEŠ will be shut down within a few years or operate at minimum capacity.

In June, Ireland’s Moneypoint power plant stopped burning coal, marking the end of coal use in the country. Slovakia and Spain officially intend to exit coal in 2025, followed by Greece (2026), France and Hungary (2027), and Denmark and Italy (2028). However, the dates could be pushed forward, and more countries could join the group in the meantime.