November 17, 2025
by in News

ACER asks Greek authorities to probe power market for manipulation

The European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) is warning of signs of manipulation in Greece’s day-ahead electricity market (DAM) registered during the summer of 2024.

The region of Southeastern Europe experienced several months of high electricity prices, with average monthly levels close to EUR 200 per MWh in the case of Greece.

ACER used data from the Hellenic Energy Exchange (HEnEx) to calculate the hourly day-ahead demand and supply curves for the Greek bidding zone in the said period.

It included 93 observations, meaning 93 pairs of demand and supply curves, from June 15 to September 15 of last year.

Based on the above, four scenarios were formed, simulating and analyzing market conditions on different days and times. The baseline included all the cases and the clearing price was always above EUR 100 per MWh.

The so-called stressed scenario involved 17 observations, when prices climbed close to EUR 500 per MWh, and the critical scenario had two observations, with prices of EUR 900 per MWh.

There was even an extreme scenario,  covering September 4, when at 20:00 the price reached its maximum, with EUR 942 per MWh.

650 MWh would have made enormous difference

ACER noted that if an extra 650 MWh of energy were available during that hour, it would have reduced the price by a huge EUR 630 per MWh to EUR 311 per MWh.

The extra power could have arrived either internally from peak power plants, or through interconnections with neighboring countries.

The result is similar for the stressed scenario – 420 per MWh lower, and the baseline, when the level would have come in at 100 per MWh down from the actual prices.

Capacity withholding as a possible cause

The regulator added that during times of pressure in the system, the market power of producers became much more pronounced and their bidding behavior changed.

Based on the above, ACER reaches two conclusions. One, interconnections in the region must be utilized based on the 70% European rule to bring prices down.

Secondly, Greek authorities need to initiate a probe into whether market power was used to manipulate or abuse dominant positions, for example in the form of capacity withholding.

ACER also said data from HEnEx and the Regulatory Authority for Energy, Waste and Water (RAAEY or RAEWW) are incomplete and that more transparency is necessary moving forward.

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October 30, 2025
by in News

Negative prices to form so-called bathtub curve in Greece as photovoltaics keep growing

The latest modeling for the wholesale electricity market in Greece shows ever-decreasing prices at times when solar power output is the strongest within the day. The trend points to the formation of a so-called bathtub curve in the daily price charts at the power exchange, as a result of the expected continuation of the photovoltaic capacity surge.

Greece experienced its first negative prices this year. They intensified in August and September, weakening the profitability of investments in the production of renewable electricity.

This year, market participants expect at least 2 GW of photovoltaics to connect to the grid, along with the first standalone battery storage units.

Currently, prices usually fall to a negative EUR 1 per MWh at the most. However, the pace of installations indicates that prices will go even lower. According to the Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Energy Producers (SPEF), analytical models indicate that for every 1,000 MW of new solar capacity, the so-called system marginal price (SMP) at noon is lowered by EUR 10 per MWh.

Storage acts as a shield against price drops. But even if as many batteries are added as photovoltaics, the wholesale price is seen at a negative EUR 5 per MWh on average during the hours of maximum solar production, the organization’s Chairman Stelios Loumakis said. The level would fluctuate depending on the season and conditions in the system.

With the addition of 500 MW of wind energy per year, the price is at EUR 7.5 per MWh below zero. If system demand also rises, then the level is slightly higher, at EUR 5 per MWh in negative territory.

Loumakis: The duck curve will eventually become the bathtub curve

Especially concerning is that such price formation would turn systematic, almost daily. Loumakis expects more than 1,000 MW of annual solar installations in the following years. Therefore, the actual price could be much lower.

As things stand today, the daily power price curve resembles a duck in markets with high renewable energy penetration. Medium prices in the morning are followed by a drop at noon and a great rise later in the day. A much more pronounced curve is expected in the near future, looking more like a bathtub, he explained.

Loumakis warned years ago about the repercussions from a rapid rise in solar energy, saying that the market would overheat and lower profits.

Up to 3 GW expected this year

Other market players echoed his concerns. CEO of MGD Energy Panagiotis Mourtopalas said at the Renewable and Storage Forum that business plans are under pressure because of curtailments and negative prices. This year, 2,000 jobs have been lost in the renewable energy market as a result.

The Hellenic Association of Photovoltaic Companies (HELAPCO) estimates that new capacities this year would amount to between 2.6 GW and 3 GW, with no sign of slowing down.

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September 24, 2025
by in News

Renewables account turns red in Greece amid more low and negative power prices

Conditions in the Greek market have worsened in recent months for renewable energy producers, especially in the solar power segment, as a result of low and negative electricity prices.

So far in September, the total number of hours with a negative price in the day-ahead market (DAM) has reached 27. Prices usually fall slightly below zero, between EUR 0.01 per MWh and EUR 1, but for Sunday, September 21, they reached a negative EUR 14.8 per MWh.

In Greece, over 7 GW of renewable electricity plants with individual capacities above 400 kW operate under contracts for difference (CfDs).

Negative prices hurt producers. They receive no payment if the price is zero or below for two or more consecutive hours.

Low positive prices harm market operator

There is another issue, caused by a great number of barely positive prices during the day, when solar farms reach their maximum output. The so-called special purchase price for photovoltaics, determined once a month, has fallen steeply. In August it reached a record low of EUR 25 per MWh.

Namely, the Operator of Renewable Energy Sources & Guarantees of Origin (DAPEEP) pays a producer the difference between the special purchase price and the price in the CfD contract, which is much higher.

Therefore DAPEEP benefits from negative hourly prices, since it avoids some payments, but it loses much more from low positive prices.

Special renewables account swings back into red

The operator’s special renewables account reached a breakeven level at the beginning of this year, but turned steeply negative in recent months. The latest official data show a deficit of EUR 160 million for the period through July. Initially, a gap of EUR 173 million was projected for the end of 2025, so investors are worried.

Payments to producers remain unaffected so far and they continue in a timely fashion. Regardless, conditions in the market have made investments in solar energy less profitable. Certain players have chosen to abandon their projects. EDP Renewables and ABO Energy have decided to leave Greece altogether.

The trend has fueled demand for the purchase of solar farms benefiting from feed-in tariffs, as they are not affected by fluctuations in the wholesale market. According to information that Energypress obtained, such facilities are currently sold for around EUR 700,000 per MW.

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