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TPG Rise Climate takes over Aurora Energy Research

TPG Rise Climate, the climate investing platform of global alternative asset management firm TPG, has acquired Aurora Energy Research, a global provider of power market forecasting and analytics for critical investment and financing decisions.

As part of the transaction, existing private equity sponsors of Aurora Energy Research – CGE Partners, 22C Capital, and the company’s CEO John Feddersen will all make significant reinvestments in the business, Aurora said.

Leveraging TPG’s extensive resources and expertise, Aurora will be well-positioned to enter its next phase of growth and innovation, while continuing to deliver meaningful impact, directly advancing the mission and investment objectives of both the Company and the Rise Climate Fund, according to the company’s press release.

Feddersen: A major milestone along Aurora’s journey

This transaction represents a landmark deal in the data and analytics sector, and specifically the energy and commodities vertical. It is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions, the update reveals.

“This investment represents a major milestone along Aurora’s journey. TPG Rise Climate’s portfolio is driving the energy transition forward globally and we’re delighted to have the opportunity to contribute to this exceptional track record,” said John Feddersen, Aurora Energy Research Founder and CEO.

Beckley: Aurora’s service offering has already proved invaluable

According to Edward Beckley, Partner at TPG, with increasing power demand across the globe, Aurora’s service offering has already proved invaluable. “We expect it to have strong growth prospects in the US, Asia and beyond,” he added.

Chloe Holding Curtis, Partner at CGE, said she is proud to have supported Feddersen and his team at Aurora in its growth journey. CGE is delighted to remain investors alongside management, TPG Rise and 22C in this next phase of growth, Curtis asserted.

Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Oxford in the United Kingdom, Aurora Energy Research operates out of 17 offices worldwide covering Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia. Its comprehensive services include market outlook packages for energy industry participants, advisory support, and innovative software solutions.

TPG was founded in San Francisco in 1992. It has USD 251 billion of assets under management, and investment and operational teams around the world.

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Battery storage market in SEE emerging, Western Balkans lagging behind with positive prospects

The deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS) across Southeast Europe is progressing at an uneven pace. State subsidies and financing mechanisms have enabled the rapid implementation of BESS solutions in Greece, Romania and Bulgaria, while markets in the Western Balkans are lagging behind. However, the outlook remains positive, as experiences from neighboring markets and best practices from other parts of the European Union can help overcome initial challenges and streamline the deployment process. This was highlighted by participants of the panel dedicated to BESS at the Belgrade Energy Forum.

Among the technologies required for the energy transition, battery energy storage systems (BESS) stand out as a key factor for integrating electricity from intermittent renewable sources – wind and solar power – into the grid. There are few such facilities in Southeastern Europe and the segment is yet to even be fully regulated in the narrower Western Balkans region. The panelists at a session called Energy storage system market in SEE: trends and forecasts, at Belgrade Energy Forum (BEF 2025), outlined the trends in the budding market.

There are more and more cases of low and negative hourly prices in the wholesale electricity market in the region, providing a clear business case for BESS investments. In addition, the grid is often overloaded on weekends and holidays when solar and wind power production is high, given the weak demand.

Managing Director of Go2Power Consulting Goran Vukojević, who moderated the discussion, warned that negative prices may jeopardize system stability as well, if operators of power plants disconnect them from the grid at the same time, to avoid costs.

He highlighted the preparations in Serbia’s transmission system operator Elektromreža Srbije (EMS) for auctions for ancillary services and praised the company for transparency in regulating the competitive process. The other option for battery operators is to participate in the open market.

Managing Director of Go2Power Consulting Goran Vukojević moderated the panel discussion

Region seen with 9 GW of BESS operating power in 2030

Ioanna Barouni from Aurora Energy Research said a total of 40 GW of solar and wind power is expected to be online at the end of 2025 in the SEE region, comprising 12 countries, including Hungary. In 2030, the level is expected to reach 70 GW, which is expected to be doubled to 145 GW by mid-century. As for BESS, projections stand at 9 GW in 2030 and 25 GW in 2050.

Barouni: We miss flexibility and ancillary services for transmission and distribution system operators

The countries of the region are retiring power plants that use fossil fuels, a firm capacity, in Barouni’s words, while adding renewables. “It’s not very easy to predict how the generation profile is going to be during the day, so we miss flexibility and we miss ancillary services for TSOs and DSOs,” she said.

The gap between power prices for midday and the evening is gradually increasing. Barouni explained that batteries “create some artificial demand and absorb these low prices.” At peak demand and with less renewables, a battery can replace expensive fossil fuels, lowering the price.

Ioanna Barouni from Aurora Energy Research (pictured left) and Head of Specialized Lending at UniCredit Bank Serbia Svetlana Cerović

Serbia preparing auctions for ancillary services

Division Manager of transmission system operator (TSO) EMS Nikola Tošić acknowledged that Serbia is preparing auctions for ancillary services. He revealed that there would probably be one auction for 70% of the needed reserve in the first year. The next rounds would be more frequent, shifting toward daily auctions for balancing capacity.

In the verification process, EMS’s System Operation Department will first test the battery, Tošić added. State-owned power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS) already provides ancillary services to the TSO, so it won’t require tests, he asserted.

Serbian law defines ancillary services the same as European Union does

EMS drafted the new grid code, and it will publish the draft balancing market code for public discussion soon, according to Tošić. He said the domestic law defines ancillary services in the same way as the EU defines them in its legislation. One part is balancing services: frequency containment reserve (FCR, primary), automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR, secondary) and manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR, tertiary). The other part are non-frequency services – energy.

“We think that it would be good to incentivize the periods of the year or periods of day when the needed amount of reserve is more attractive or more in demand,” Tošić said.

Market Division Manager of EMS Nikola Tošić

Fortis Energy moving ahead with battery investments regardless of government support schemes

Fortis Energy’s Chief Executive Officer for Eastern Europe Nikola Oklobdžija considers the lack of regulation to be the biggest challenge for developers. An investor can currently only focus on charging the batteries when the prices are low and sell when they are high, he underscored.

The Turkey-based company develops photovoltaic, wind power and BESS projects in the region. The first bigger investments in renewable electricity plants with energy storage are the ones that will break the ice, in Oklobdžija’s opinion.

“Of course, it helps if you have a CfD contract, so the banks will look at it more favorably,” he stated. Oklobdžija added that companies need to be able to present revenue to the lenders and what the fees are for renting the capacity or providing different services.

Bankability depends on state support and PPA contracts, cash flow models and insurance

In the meantime, Fortis is examining the experiences in Bulgaria and Greece, which have already held auctions for standalone batteries. Financing a project is easier with a CfD – contract for difference, but the company is determined to push ahead anyway, Oklobdžija stressed.

In North Macedonia it commissioned a solar power plant in Oslomej and recently contracted a BESS to be added to the facility. Oklobdžija said it wasn’t a requirement but that Fortis opted for energy storage because of market pressure with prices and occasional curtailments, like during Easter last month.

The introduction of ancillary services would facilitate the development for standalone battery systems, he explained.

Fortis Energy’s CEO for Eastern Europe Nikola Oklobdžija

Cerović: First there will be more projects for colocated BESS units than for standalone facilities

Head of Specialized Lending at UniCredit Bank Serbia Svetlana Cerović highlighted the intensive activity in Germany and Italy, for instance, but also in neighboring Romania. UniCredit is present in those markets and is analyzing the development of the battery storage market, she pointed out, arguing that the best practices in the EU are the best way for building and financing battery storage.

Cerović said there would first be more projects in the region for BESS colocated with renewable energy plants than standalone units.

She suggested that the proposed investments that include storage should be better pondered at the next renewable energy auction in Serbia. It is in the country’s interest to enable providing flexibility and to support the projects, she said.

There may be a rationale for subsidizing prosumers to add storage in Serbia, Cerović said. Turning to small-scale projects, she expressed the belief that power purchase agreements (PPAs) are “convenient” for them. She is recommending dedicating a certain capacity for the category at the next auction in the country.

The first projects in Serbia, conditioned by energy storage requirements for a grid connection, are in the process of negotiating financing, according to Cerović.

Fire protection is especially significant for insurers

Renewable Energy Insurance Broker (REIB) has insured some 4 GWh of energy storage capacity in Bulgaria and just as much elsewhere in the world, Business Development Manager Dimitar Dimitrov said. Developers should contact insurance companies when the design is done, as well as for cargo insurance, he suggested and added it is particularly important for projects that get subsidies.

“We’re not only insurance brokers, but we’re also investors, which helps us understand a bit more about the clients’ needs, and what we can definitely do more in cases of coverage. Understanding clients’ needs helps us also prevent risks that could occur during certain stages,” Dimitrov stated.

Most insurers prefer at least a six-meter distance between containers or rows of three to four containers holding batteries, he said. It is the most important factor in fire protection, in Dimitrov’s opinion. When the distance is shorter than three meters, a firewall is required for insurance, he explained.

REIB’s Business Development Manager Dimitar Dimitrov

The next segment is construction insurance. For insurance companies, it is not a higher risk profile, Dimitrov asserted. Next, he recommended operational risk insurance including coverage for business disruption, and insurance against cyberattacks. In such events, the grid connection can be damaged, the company’s representative pointed out. “Insurance policies are definitely bankable,” he added.

Bulgaria has completed its tenders for state support to BESS combined with renewable energy plants, and for standalone units. But even before subsidies, batteries have been delivered and facilities are under construction, Dimitrov stressed. Many photovoltaic projects in Bulgaria have emerged in the past few months and most of them include BESS, he said.

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Everything is ready for Belgrade Energy Forum 2025 – welcome!

Everything is ready for the third Belgrade Energy Forum – BEF 2025. On May 14 and 15, the conference will gather four hundred participants from more then 30 countries from the region, Europe, and beyond.

Participants of the Belgrade Energy Forum 2025 (BEF 2025) will have the opportunity to hear from speakers from the European Union and five countries in the region and exchange views. Eight panels featuring more than 50 officials, executives and prominent energy experts will try to untangle the currently most important issues in the energy sector.

Representatives of governments, regulatory agencies, regional and international institutions and organizations as well as the business community will outline their future moves, which is invaluable information given the new reality of a turbulent geopolitical landscape.

Latest information on the largest project for the installation of solar power plants in the region and beyond

Energy Community Secretariat Director Artur Lorkowski and Serbian Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović will open the event. One of the key speakers is Christian Zinglersen, director of the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER).

The ministerial panel consists of ministers and other officials from Montenegro, Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, and the Republic of Srpska, which is one of the two entities making up Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Representatives of the Hyundai Engineering – UGT Renewables consortium will summarize the next steps in the largest solar power project in the region and beyond. The consortium is the diamond sponsor of the event this year as well.

It entails solar power plants with a total connected power of 1,000 MW, and battery energy storage systems (BESS) of 200 MW in overall capability and 400 MWh in capacity.

It is a joint project with Serbian state-owned power utility Elektroprivreda Srbije. The partners took another important step this week by signing a grid connection contract with the country’s transmission system operator Elektromreža Srbije.

Hitachi’s cutting-edge technological solutions are indispensable in Southeast Europe

Keynote speakers Seung-Won Lee, Vice President of Hyundai Engineering, and Chan Wo Park, Global Executive Advisor at UGT Renewables, will present the project.

Hitachi Energy‘s cutting-edge technological solutions are indispensable in Southeast Europe. Some examples of its contribution to the energy transition of the region are the largest solar power plant in the Balkans – Apriltsi in Bulgaria, of 250 MW, as well as the second wind farm in North Macedonia – Bogoslovec, with a capacity of 36 MW.

Together with the Association of Serbian Energy Intensive Industry, Hitachi Energy is in the group of silver sponsors of BEF 2025.

The association was founded by Metalfer Group, Elixir Group, Lafarge Serbia, Moravacem (part of CRH) and TITAN Cementara Kosjerić. They are producers of steel, fertilizers and cement driven by a vision of sustainable development, industrial innovation and regulatory clarity.

Zečević: Decarbonization must be shaped by strategy, not imposed by circumstance

BEF 2025 will be attended by the association’s manager Stanislava Simić, Metalfer Group president, Branko Zečević and Lafarge Serbia CEO Dimitrije Knjeginjić.

“As Europe enforces carbon accountability through CBAM, Serbia and the Western Balkans must not remain a regulatory blind spot. Without our own regionally adapted carbon border policy, we risk being overwhelmed by carbon-intensive imports, eroding both our industry and climate goals,” Zečević stressed.

The association calls for a regional, synchronized approach – one that levels the playing field, accelerates innovation, and positions the Western Balkans as a credible partner in Europe’s green transition, he added. Decarbonization must be shaped by strategy, not imposed by circumstance, according to Zečević.

Batteries are the stars of BEF 2025

The panel ‘Energy storage system market in SEE: trends and forecasts’ has attracted great interest.

One of the panelists is Ioanna Barouni, Research Associate in Aurora Energy Research, a reliable energy market analyst and a knowledge partner of the forum. The company’s analysis unveils answers to questions that everybody asks – politicians, investors and regulators alike. For instance, one burning issue is the effect of cannibalization in solar power on wholesale power prices.

Aurora recently presented its first forecast for the Western Balkans, based on investment activity. The firm now provides forecasting services for Albania, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Cerović: BEF is a key event bringing together industry experts

Financing battery energy storage systems is a job banks such as UniCredit Bank Serbia, a bronze sponsor of the conference.

“I’m delighted to once again represent UniCredit Bank Serbia, in BEF, a key event that brings together industry experts and leaders in the energy transition in Southeast Europe. As the global market moves towards decarbonization and greater use of renewable sources, the role of energy storage systems becomes increasingly important,” said Svetlana Cerović, Head of Specialized Lending at UniCredit Bank Serbia.

She is also last year’s winner of the Female Leader in Sustainable Energy award.

Fortis brings its vast experience in investments in energy storage

Fortis is bringing its vast experience in investments in energy storage. In February, the firm inked a deal for batteries for North Macedonia’s largest PV plant, Oslomej, while a 36 MWh battery in Serbia is in the pipeline. Fortis has also signed a framework agreement with PowerChina on joint investments in renewable energy projects.

Nikola Oklobdžija, CEO of Fortis Energy for Eastern Europe, will present the company’s vision.

Renewable Energy Insurance Broker, a bronze sponsor, was one of the key factors for the largest photovoltaic plant in Romania. It provided insurance packages for every phase of development of the 155 MW Rătești facility. REIB is a specialized insurance intermediary focused exclusively on the renewable energy sector.

Tailored insurance solutions improve project bankability and long-term security, according to the firm.

Four companies are exhibitors

BEF 2025 has an exhibition segment, too. One of the companies showcasing its activities is ScadaWatt, which develops smart and reliable solutions for power plants. The company provides remote monitoring, real-time control, and AI-powered analytics to improve efficiency and reduce losses.

SciEngineer and Zarja Elektronika will also present their services and solutions. SciEngineer is the exclusive representative of MathWorks, COMSOL, and Speedgoat in Central and Eastern Europe. Their solutions reduce development time, cut costs, improve reliability, and accelerate time-to-market.

Zarja Elektronika is a leading Slovenian company specializing in advanced fire detection and alarm systems. With over 40 years of experience, it provides innovative, reliable, and tailor-made safety solutions for industrial, commercial, and residential environments.

DRI and YEO are friends of the conference

The Chinese company SANY Renewable Energy, which owns the Alibunar 1 and Alibunar 2 wind farms, will also have an exhibition stand.

DRI and YEO are joining the group of the friends of the conference. DRI is an Amsterdam-headquartered renewables developer and a subsidiary of the DTEK Group, one of the biggest private investors in Ukraine’s energy sector.

Joffroy Beckers, Head of PPA, will speak at a panel dedicated to the topic.

In January, DRI said it planned to start building the 120 MW Ljubovo wind power plant in Croatia in 2027. It revealed it right after it completed a 60 MW solar power plant in Romania.

Turkey-based YEO is active in more than 30 countries, delivering turnkey solutions in energy and industrial systems. In the Balkans, in addition to its energy expertise role, the company invests in renewable energy projects.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions onstatus and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.
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Aurora forecasts Western Balkans power capacity growth of 20 GW by 2040

The Western Balkans could see a 20 GW increase in installed capacity by 2040, with nearly 65% coming from renewables, Aurora Energy Research found. Short-term volatility and increased costs of commodities are expected to keep electricity prices near or over EUR 100 per MWh until 2030.

Aurora Energy Research issued its first forecast for the Western Balkans, eyeing investor movement. The firm expanded its market forecasting services, now offering full granularity modeling for Albania, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina, available in its Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast.

The announcement follows the conclusion of a multiclient study comprising three workshops, the results of which reveal increased investor interest in the region.

Photovoltaics have the fastest growth rate and biggest capacity in the forecast

The combined installed capacity in the Western Balkans excluding Serbia is expected to grow by 20 GW by 2040 and by as much as 35 GW by 2060 from the current levels, leading to tens of billions in investments, Aurora said. Renewables account for the lion’s share with nearly 65% while battery energy storage systems (BESS), interconnectors and hydrogen-fired combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) make up the remaining capacity additions.

Solar power shows the fastest rate of growth and absolute capacity value, according to the global power market analytics provider.

Electricity market prices returning below EUR 100 per MWh only after 2030

Looking into wholesale prices, the analysis expects the Western Balkans to follow similar trends as other SEE markets but with regional nuances, based on the local energy system evolution. Short-term volatility and increased commodities are foreseen to keep prices near or over the EUR 100 per MWh mark until 2030 while long-term baseload prices under Aurora’s central scenario are expected at between EUR 70 per MWh and EUR 80 per MWh, driven by high commodity prices, while an increasing renewables’ penetration acts in the opposite direction.

Early movers have an advantage as cannibalization looms

Renewable energy assets capture prices will benefit from lower cannibalization levels in the early years compared to other SEE countries, as there is less capacity in the system, giving early movers an advantage, the analysis reads. Over time, the momentum for storage seen in SEE likely spreads to the Western Balkans.

Coal phaseout seen by 2045

The speed of decarbonization in the region largely depends on the implementation of the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) or alignment with the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The shift away from lignite could take time, Aurora’s experts say, with a full exit expected by 2045, but its share in the power system is expected to decrease significantly in the next decade due to pressure from CBAM and carbon taxes.

“The Western Balkans are Europe’s most rapidly changing power markets. Ageing thermal fleets, liberalisation of markets, policy support schemes, and strong fundamental economics are poised to bring the Western Balkans at the forefront of developers’ agendas,” said Panos Kefalas, Research Lead at Aurora Energy Research.

The Western Balkans Power and Renewables Market Forecast provides in-depth insights, detailed market analysis, and data-driven projections for investors, developers, and stakeholders.

Established in 2013, Aurora Energy Research provides power market forecasting and analytics for investment and financing decisions. Headquartered in Oxford, it operates out of 16 offices worldwide covering Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Australia. The firm’s services include market outlook for energy industry participants, advisory support, and software solutions.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions onstatus and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence.