International Energy Agency – Official scenarios

International Energy Agency

Reference or baseline scenarios are not presented as business-as-usual or fixed outcomes, but typically are used for comparison, and present the theoretical case where no action is taken, which is not considered a politically realistic viewpoint. The IEA Reference scenario “takes into account all government policies and initiatives that had been adopted by mid-2004. It does not include policy initiatives that might be adopted in the future. Energy markets will probably evolve in different ways from those depicted in this scenario, because the policy landscape will change.”

Similarly the 2003 EU Energy scenario “takes into account existing policies and those in the process of being implemented at the end of 2001” and does not include the Renewables Directive and “additional policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimations in it’s Reference Scenario, presented in 2002 for wind energy was for 33 GW in 2010, 57 GW in 2020 and 71 GW in 2030.

In 2004, the IEA Reference Scenario projections were updated to 66GW in 2010, 131 GW in 2020 and 170 GW in 2030.

Within two years the IEA forecast for wind power installed in the EU for 2010 were doubled.

Advanced scenarios on wind energy

The IEA Advanced Scenario “considers those policies and measures that countries are currently considering or might reasonably be expected to adopt taking account of technical and cost factors, the political context and market barriers. The aim is to present a consistent picture of how global energy markets might evolve if governments decide to strengthen their environmental and energy-security policies.”

The IEA Advanced scenario projected a wind energy market of 75 GW in 2010, 145 GW in 2020 and 202 GW in 2030.


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